The Future of Gaza

Where are we headed

Whenever I look at today’s political environment I can’t help but be reminded of Hobbes’ claim that man’s existence is “nasty, brutish, and short.” Indeed, a war in Europe has torn Ukraine apart resulting in the destruction of an entire generation of young men including a new cold war between East and West; there are major tensions and potential for conflict in East Asia; and a genocide is taking place right now in the Gaza Strip. My focus today is on the conflict in Gaza.

I wrote this article with the arguments of many prominent realists in mind such as Mearsheimer, Scott Ritter, Larry Wilkerson etc. I like these people because they look at facts on the ground, and also because they present me with a glimour of hope: they argue that Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza are self-defeating and will lead to Israel’s long-term ruin. I really wish that were so, however, I think they are wrong on that, and Israel will succeed. I wrote this essay to depress everyone.

I shall present three arguments to prove my case: 1. Israel has the intention to commit ethnic cleansing in Gaza. 2. Israel’s policies are leading to this outcome and 3. The world will not respond to Israel’s actions. If all three statements are true, then Israel will be successful.

Firstly, there is an abundance of evidence that Israel has the intention to commit ethnic cleansing. There have been literally hundreds of documented statements made by Israeli politicians, Israeli military personnel, and ordinary people within the Israeli body politic who have made clearly genocidal statements. Indeed, the International Court of Justice recently ruled that “the evidence that Israel has the intent to commit genocide is plausible.” Additionally Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich held a large event calling for the resettlement of Gaza, and the removal or “emigration” of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Israel has a rich history of successfully conducting ethnic cleansing - this was done in 1948, 1967 (in both the Golan Heights of Syria and the West Bank), and since 1967 over 500,000 Palestinians have been forced off their land. Thus, the evidence is quite powerful that Israel has the intent to commit ethnic cleansing.

Now, we must prove that Israel’s actions to date in Gaza, since October 8 2023, are leading to this outcome. It is clear that in the initial stages of the conflict, Israel attempted to expel the Palestinians into the Sinai desert: this failed because the Egyptians, for many reasons, refused to accept Palestinian refugees. Thus, Israel changed strategy from mass expulsion to physical extermination - genocide, in order to remove the population and allow for re-settlement. Israel has been wildly successful in this regard: since October 8, food, water and medicine has been reduced greatly into Gaza which has lead to famine. The herding of the population into Rafah leading to overcrowding, combined with the Israeli destruction of the healthcare system has created perfect conditions for plague and disease to spread among the civilian population. Furthermore, the carpet bombing of residential areas, and destruction of places of Palestinian culture is characteristic of genocide - erasing the enemies identity. If things continue as they are, then eventually the entire population will either starve to death, or die of disease - a process that will take well over a year. There is no evidence that the Israeli public wish to change these policies; the only thing that can stop Israel is external pressure. Without international pressure, Israel will win and get what it wants.

Lastly, (and this is probably the most depressing part), the world will not respond to Israel’s actions. We are five months into this genocide, and I can’t think of a country that has unilaterally placed sanctions on Israel. Indeed, not a single Arab or Islamic country has either broken ties with Israel, or placed sanctions on Israel. The Arab League did not place an oil embargo on Israel. The EU, Russia, China, and most importantly the US continues to back Israel to the hilt due to the power of the Israel Lobby. Even though within the populations of these countries, there is a rising rate of sympathy with the Palestinians, however this does not influence elite opinion, and sympathiser’s with the Palestinians don’t make a big enough majority to seriously influence policy makers. Indeed, images of Gazan children and old people dying from starvation are now commonplace on the internet, and still states haven’t changed their policies towards Israel. There is no reason to imagine this might change. Just look at the historical record: there have been countless genocides in history, and most of them were successfully orchestrated by the oppressor (achieving what they wanted), and the world did nothing in those cases: Rwanda Genocide, Armenian genocide, Genocide of Native Americans, Genocide in Darfur etc. We just turn a blind eye because we don’t want to lose a trading partner like Israel which could make us some money. Turning to Israel, Israel has a long and rich history of doing horrible and violent things: 1948 and 67 ethnic cleansing, 1982 invasion of Lebanon, numerous bombing campaigns in Gaza, Apartheid in Palestinian territories etc. If the world did nothing back then, why will the world suddenly change and do something new today? There is no sign of that.

There are a couple arguments used by Mearsheimer or Scott Ritter: 1. The Palestinian resistance in Gaza will outlast Israel and win by surviving and 2. Eventually pressure from within the body politic of nations will force them to pressure Israel like Apartheid South Africa or even attack Israel. Regarding the first point, I no doubt admire the bravery of the resistance, and they are certainly inflicting heavy casualties on the IDF. However, Israel’s policies of starving the population and allowing disease to spread, will eventually lead to the eradication of the population, and the resistance (which depends upon the people to survive) will die with it. Regarding the second point, as I have said before, there have been many genocides in history in which states simply ignored them, and much off Palestinian suffering for the last 76 years has been ignored: there is thus no reason to assume there will be a change. Additionally, the idea that some other state actor will attack Israel is just fanciful thinking: states never go to war based on moral grounds - they’ll only attack for important strategic reasons or if there survival is threatened because war is expensive and bloody. Also, Israel has nuclear weapons and there is no reason any state or militia (like Hezbollah) would ever attack Israel - let alone succeed. Thus, in these two respects, the realists are wrong, and are not very realistic.

Therefore, if Israel’s objective is the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and Jewish resettlement, then all the evidence makes clear they will succeed and successfully pull off a textbook genocide that will eventually be forgotten like the Destruction of Carthage by the Roman Empire. Unless the West wakes up and learns that genocide is wrong.